Laurence Dollimore
ANTICIPATION is building for what could be one of the most dramatic Eurovision Song Contest finals for decades.
There has been widespread reports of drama and there are still several hours to go before the event kicks off in Malmo, Sweden.
It comes after the Netherlands has been disqualified, protests have erupted in Finland and Ireland missed dress rehearsals.
The final of the annual competition will begin at 9pm Spanish time tonight, but when will Spain perform.
READ MORE: Chaos at Eurovision 2024
The running order, before the Netherlands was disqualified, showed that Nebulossa would sing their anthem Zorra eighth – meaning they will now be seventh.
As hosts, Sweden will perform first, followed by Ukraine, then Germany, Luxembourg, Israel and Lithuania.
Meanwhile the UK, represented by Olly Alexander and his sing Dizzy, will perform 12th.
So what does that mean for Spain or the UK’s chances?
Dr Liam Brierley from the University of Liverpool told the BBC that studies showed songs benefit from being performed later on in the show.
He said: “A song moves one place up the leaderboard, on average, than it otherwise would if it is performed eight positions later on the night.”
It means if a song was performed first and finished in 15th place, it would have likely finished 12th had it been performed last.
However psychologist Dr David Maidment from Loughborough University added that being first may be the exception to that rule.
He said: “With any kind of sequence – in this case, songs – each one is an item and they’re happening one after the other. The first song gets really well remembered because it’s new, we’re interested in it and we’re probably all really excited because it’s the kick-off of Eurovision.”
He then said after the first few songs ‘everything else really dips.’
He added: “Every song, or item, tends to interfere or override with previous one and so our memory of those isn’t so great. Then, towards the end, because stuff doesn’t happen after it, it’s well-remembered again.
“Obviously, there’ll be some biases – if a song is novel, we’ll take an interest in it because our brains really like things that are new and innovative so we’ll pay it more attention, or if a song comes on where we have an invested interest. We call that salience.”
Looking at all the winners between 1999 and 2019, Dr Brieley found that most of them came from the last quarter (roughly) of the 26 performances at the final.
Songs performed in the last quarter can move up 2.4 places on average than if they were performed earlier.
Meanwhile, in good news for the UK tonight, the second quarter is the next best option, statistically, followed by the third quarter, and finally the first quarter.
Spain will be performing on the cusp of the first and second quarter of the performances, so only time will tell how well that serves them.
