Staff Reporter
As the US election approaches, global citizens including those in Spain are getting ready for another wild adventure as Donald Trump vows to retake the presidency. This would see him implement the raft of controversial policies that he was narrowly prevented from pursuing over the past four years following his defeat to Joe Biden in 2020.
Almost half a decade later, Trump – now 77 and showing no signs of mellowing with age – is facing off against the 82-year-old Biden, who looks increasingly frail and has yet to act decisively in the face of mounting geopolitical chaos.
With opinion polls showing Trump 20 points ahead of Biden on his handling of the economy, the question on everyone’s mind this year is: will the controversial candidate return to the White House yet again, and what will this mean for geopolitics and the world economy?
Trump looks set for a strong comeback
When Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, many commentators breathed a collective sigh of relief as one of the most controversial presidencies in American history came to its close.
Claiming that the vote was rigged, the former real estate mogul returned to his luxurious Mar-a-Lago hotel in Florida, carrying numerous boxes of classified documents with him for good measure. Just weeks before this, Trump was accused of aiding and abetting attempts to storm the US capitol and interfere with the election.
Today, criminal charges arising from both of these actions still stalk the former president despite his strong showing on the campaign trail.
Trump may be facing criminal charges, but for a large percentage of Republican voters he still remains the candidate of choice.
With victory at the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses, the former president has seemingly stopped his biggest rival Nikki Haley in her tracks. His recent win in Nevada has fueled speculation that he could even deal her an embarrassing defeat in her home state of South Carolina, where she once served as governor.
This early success on the campaign trail is expected to intensify as Trump takes his signature roadshow, complete with dramatic exits from the private jet bearing his name, on a tour of some of America’s poorest states. The self-proclaimed billionaire has always enjoyed a surprising following among working-class voters, especially those with twelve or fewer years of schooling.
With Haley showing no signs of a dramatic comeback, Trump is almost guaranteed to secure the Republican nomination as his campaign moves through parts of America that have been left behind by the country’s current economic expansion.
This makes it extremely likely that he will face off against Joe Biden in November – but which of these two imperfect candidates is most likely to win?
Trump vs. Biden puts American common sense to the test
Critics on both sides of the political spectrum are having a field day lampooning both Trump (with his outlandish comments and pending criminal charges) and Biden, who appears frailer and more incoherent as time goes by.
Both candidates’ behavior has been exaggerated by media clips that show them at their worst, and there’s no doubt that choosing between a 77-year-old criminal suspect and an 83-year-old who may not always have a firm grasp of critical situations is an extremely tough choice for the American public.
The latest political betting odds show Trump leading Biden with odds of +260 against +450. This implies that if an election were to be held immediately, the Republican would stand a very strong chance of victory. Given that, Donald Trump may see the current numbers as a stamp of approval from conservative voters, but the world is watching America cautiously ahead of the upcoming election.
While the US economy is performing well, in contrast to China’s current slump, a number of geopolitical flashpoints have emerged over the past year which will test the resolve and leadership of the next US president.
The ongoing war in Israel, which shows no signs of ending anytime soon, is likely to spark a massive refugee crisis as Palestinians flee to surrounding countries.
At the same time, Iran, which is suspected to have backed the terrorist attack in Gaza and sparked the conflict in December is engaging in hostilities with Pakistan and may be contemplating an invasion of Iraq.
In Asia Pacific, a traditional base for US naval power, China’s ongoing threats to invade Taiwan and force the nation to reunite with Beijing by force could spark major conflict at a time when the world’s second biggest economy is spiraling into deflation.
Whether China decides to postpone the war for economic reasons or use it as an engine of growth, the White House will need to act decisively to prevent a major crisis in a region that contributes hugely to the world economy.
If elected, Trump will be called upon to calm tensions and protect US allies – a responsibility he seems intent on shirking. He recently shocked European allies by stating that NATO members who don’t pay towards the military body should be attacked by Russia and that he would encourage Moscow to do so.
Comments like these do little to calm the nerves of foreign observers who fear that a second Trump presidency could bring about a major global conflict.
Final Thoughts
With election season and major geopolitical headwinds starting to pick up, some American voters may not realize that their choices could drastically alter world events over the next few years.
Given the advanced age and erratic behavior of both candidates, only time will tell whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden is better suited to solving these unprecedented challenges – and whoever is elected, the world may be in for a worrying four years.
