Laurence Dollimore
SPAIN has already passed its peak in terms of coronavirus hospitalisations.
That’s the consensus made by the research team at the University Institute for Multidisciplinary Mathematics at the Polytechnic University of Valencia.
According to their model, the peak in hospitalisations came on March 31, but the most important date will be on April 9, reported El Mundo.
In seven days time, the study predicts a peak in COVID-19 patients in intensive care units (ICU).
It means all efforts will be focused on preparing for what will be the toughest time for ICUs across the country.
But the makers of the report warned: “It took us a long time to produce this report because the model is so sensitive to different factors, meaning the reality is there is still a lot of uncertainty about what is happening and what will happen.”
There are several factors that they cannot control when creating the model.
These include the percentage of people who end up in the ICU and recover and the actual number of infected people in Spain.
Another focus for the researchers has been the nationwide lockdown and when we can expect it to be lifted.
The experts predict there will be a staggered lifting of the quarantine.
They believe that each seven days, a portion of the population (around 25%), will be released from a majority of the lockdown restrictions.
This, they predict, will begin taking place from May 1 (then May 8, 15 and 22).
In the best case scenario, researchers hope the good weather and the maintenance of social distancing will reduce contagion by a third.
