Laurence Dollimore
NEW climate models have predicted that Spain will be rocked by devastating ‘megadroughts’ by the end of the century.
The worst projections foresee a 15-year period of rainfall less than half the average level.
Researchers from Newcastle University selected a total of 15 different climate models used by leading scientific bodies around the world, including Nasa and the Met Office.
While there was a range of results, ‘extreme future droughts’ were predicted by climate models which could accurately simulate what had happened in the past.
Spain has seen three major droughts – the latest of which spanned 1990 to 1995 – affecting most of the country, with rainfall reduced by up to 30%, but it has also experienced a number of smaller ones in recent years.
Writing in the International Journal of Climatology, the researchers said: “All models project an intensification of drought conditions for the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana river basins.
“Some project small increases in drought conditions but most project multi-year droughts reaching up to eight years of mean annual rainfall missing [over a 15-year period] … by the end of the century.”
A previous study suggested southern Spain could become a desert by 2100, as global warming changes the ecosystem ‘in a way that is without precedent’ since 10,000 BC.
A 15-year megadrought would have a serious negative impact Spain’s crops, risking long-lasting economic consequences.
Kind of surprised to see this article wasn’t headlined “House prices set to rocket as rainfall predicted to HALVE by the end of the century!”.
Slipping up, aren’t you?
I think that the global warming anthropogenic do not exist. But it is a fact that the sahara desert is increasing since some thousands of years, and that the Iberic Peninsual is recieving less rain since centuries ago.
Por otra parte los modelos matematicos no son otra cosa más que numbers backed by computer algorithms designed from hypotesis.
Crops and economic consequences are the least of your worries when you have no water and death is around the corner. Everywhere one looks there is land being reformed and plasticated for crop growing – all totally unsustainable. Everyone knows this but we seem impotent to act upon it. Drastic measures are needed now, but they will be very unpopular with the voters.